Bullish or bearish for the economy

The market seems to think that this is pretty bullish; stock and crypto are pumping heavily. Mid-term not so clear. Yuri says:

• Last time, Trump slapped on some tariffs but also increased spending quite a lot, which led to more imports.
• If Elon really becomes the DOGE and fires half of the goverment, we might see a big recession

Ukraine

Probably bad, but not as bad, as most seem to think, says Anders:

• Trump likely cares only about the money aspect and might just want to force the Europeans to increase their share even more. Would be fine selling them guns.
• Putin is unlikely to take a deal that puts the DMZ at the current front lines
• Ukraine cannot accept a deal that would allow Russian the war to continue in a couple of years.

My thoughts:

• Trump is always a wildcard and also depends on his advisors. The Biden administration’s first goal has always been avoiding escalation, not so clear under Trump.
• If Ukraine accepts concessions, it needs guarantees. Realistically, that means boots on the ground after the peace deal, since Putin will never respect it.
• If Putin rejects Trump’s awesome deal, we might see even more arms for Ukraine. Time for Selensky to stroke Trump’s ego and rename some random town to Trump місто.

Rationalists keep on winning

Prediction markets as the source of truth

This election we really saw the prediction markets in action. Polymarket is the clear winner, called all states correctly and had better odds for Trump. Expect more to come in this domain.

TPOT in the white house

Rationalists and e/acc seem to celebrate J.D. Vance’s (Finally, somebody who reads Scott Alexander in charge) and Elon’s win. It might be a little overenthusiastic, but it seems like, again, a win for TPOT & the tech right. We’ll likely see more stuff from that corner of the internet going mainstream.

Elon’s gamble

I bought Twitter for 44 billion, and all I got was the 3 branches of the government

A lot of the mainstream still thinks that he’s actually dumb. How often do they have to be beaten by him before they update their views? Elon gambled and won - again.

• This likely would not have happened without him buying Twitter
• His moves in Pennsylvania, like shuttling the Amish, showed that a lot has not been tried yet in politics
• Elon is now pretty much unobstructed by goverment agencies. Pretty bullish for all his companies.
• If Elon can really make his cuts to bureaucracy, we’ll see the most interesting experiment in a western goverment for quite some time. Super bullish for the US, if he actually makes it.

But all of that hinges actually on him staying in power.

The upcoming betrayal?

Last time Trump did not build the wall. Most people seem to forget that he’s not reliable. Given that there can only be one main character - Elon or Trump - will we see Elon fired again soon?